What are reach, target and likely schools?
Reach means admission would require factors outside your control. Target means your profile sits inside the admitted range. Likely means you are comfortably above it. The category families get wrong is likely, because a likely school only counts if the student would genuinely be happy to attend.
Defining them honestly
Likely: your grades and coursework sit clearly above the school's admitted middle range, and you would be pleased to enroll. Target: you are squarely inside the range; reasonable odds, no promises. Reach: the outcome depends on things you cannot see or influence.
One rule that catches most errors: any college admitting under roughly ten percent of applicants is a reach for everyone. A perfect transcript does not convert those into targets, and treating them as targets is how a spring goes badly.
Where to find the real numbers
Every U.S. college receiving federal aid publishes a Common Data Set with admitted-student ranges and admit rates. That is the source. The federal College Scorecard adds size, cost and outcomes. Both beat any ranking, and both carry a year you should check.
The likely school is the important one
Families assemble likely schools as insurance and then never look at them again. If April arrives and the only admission is to a school nobody wanted, the list failed regardless of how carefully the reaches were chosen. Visit the likely schools. Find things to like. A likely school the student is quietly excited about changes the emotional temperature of the entire process.
Affordability is a category too
A school that admits you and does not offer enough aid is not a real option. Run net price calculators while building the list, not after decisions arrive.